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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (14 Apr) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 13/0202Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 13/0938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
13/0646Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1415 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (15 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (16 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 099 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/103/105 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 011/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 023/035-015/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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