Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/1355Z from Region 3006 (S30W07). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 316 km/s at 10/0335Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
10/1257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 306 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13
May).
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 116 Predicted 11 May-13 May 116/116/116 90 Day Mean 10 May 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 006/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/01 | M1.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
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