Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (15 Apr) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 14/1310Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 14/2051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 14/1643Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 103 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 029/044 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 016/022-013/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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