Viewing archive of Friday, 31 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 31/0656Z from Region 2918 (N22W67). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 30/2226Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/1419Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 340 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Jan, 03 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
Class M20%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Dec 102
  Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan 102/102/098
  90 Day Mean        31 Dec 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  007/008-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%50%40%

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