Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 December 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 30/1237Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 30/0035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 102
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 102/100/100
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  007/008-005/006-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%25%40%

All times in UTC

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