Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/0428Z from Region 2916 (S17W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 28/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
29/2049Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 935 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 111 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 110/108/105 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 008/010-007/008-005/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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