Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 January 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/1226Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 26/2237Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/1831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1754Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 379 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jan 107
  Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        27 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  007/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  006/005-010/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm25%40%25%

All times in UTC

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