Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 570 km/s at 20/1813Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/0612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 587 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 080 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 013/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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