Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 373 km/s at 24/2052Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/0831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 093 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 094/095/095 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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