Viewing archive of Friday, 17 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/0051Z from Region 2911 (N19E54). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec,
20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 477 km/s at 16/2152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Dec,
19 Dec, 20 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 121 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 121/121/122 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 007/008-006/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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