Viewing archive of Monday, 26 April 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0230Z from Region 2816 (S22W79). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 26/1829Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 351 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Apr 080
  Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr 080/078/078
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

All times in UTC

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