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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 27/1942Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 541 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Apr, 29 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Apr 079
  Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        27 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  006/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%30%

All times in UTC

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