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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 25/0135Z from Region 2816 (S22W65). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/2051Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3082 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 079
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 079/078/078
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  018/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  013/015-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm50%10%10%

All times in UTC

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