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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 23/2312Z from Region 2817 (N18, L=336). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 24/0459Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4918 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Apr 079
  Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 079/079/078
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  015/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  019/025-013/015-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%10%
Minor storm35%15%01%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm75%50%10%

All times in UTC

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