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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 23/2115Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1929Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4501 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 084
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%05%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%10%10%

All times in UTC

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