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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 971 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 080
  Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  016/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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