Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb,
27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 971 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 080 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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