Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 March 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/0359Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/1221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5101 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet levels on day two (27 Mar) and active levels on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 079
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 080/080/075
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  016/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  007/008-006/005-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm15%10%65%

All times in UTC

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