Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 20/1617Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 20/0412Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 20/0510Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 500 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 080 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 021/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 016/022-015/020-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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