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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 21/1958Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/1448Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2033 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Mar 077
  Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        21 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  020/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  018/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  015/020-016/018-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%35%25%

All times in UTC

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