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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 21/1236Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/0503Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6701 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 075
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  015/ NA
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  015/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  008/010-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%45%45%

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