Viewing archive of Friday, 25 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 25/0916Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 25/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 25/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6990 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 Sep, 27 Sep) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 073 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 012/012-011/012-011/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 60% |
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