Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 September 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 24/0853Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1232 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 074
  Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  017/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  013/018-014/016-012/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm20%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%45%60%

All times in UTC

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