Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 24/0853Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 24/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 24/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1232 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 074 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 013/018-014/016-012/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 45% | 60% |
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