Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0038Z from Region 2773 (N27E18). There are currently 0 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 26/1707Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 26/1135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 26/1202Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3802 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28
Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 073 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 013/018-015/022-028/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 65% | 80% |
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