Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and expected to be very low on day three (17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 14/0833Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 14/0617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1485 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 May), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (16 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 074
  Predicted   15 May-17 May 074/072/072
  90 Day Mean        14 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  025/036
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  018/028-020/032-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm15%25%15%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm65%75%70%

All times in UTC

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