Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 May 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/1924Z from Region 2741 (N05W44). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 May) and expected to be very low on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 14/2113Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 15/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 074
  Predicted   16 May-18 May 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        15 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  023/038
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  018/032-015/020-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm35%30%10%
Major-severe storm25%15%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm75%70%25%

All times in UTC

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