Viewing archive of Monday, 13 May 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 13/1942Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/0857Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13474 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 075
  Predicted   14 May-16 May 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        13 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  005/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/005-018/024-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%35%
Minor storm01%25%30%
Major-severe storm01%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%55%65%

All times in UTC

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