Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 May 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 717 km/s at 06/1219Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 05/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 05/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 May) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 067 Predicted 07 May-09 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 06 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 012/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 021/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 014/020-014/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 40% |
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