Viewing archive of Monday, 7 May 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 07/0051Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/0309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 24933 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (08 May, 09 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 070
  Predicted   08 May-10 May 070/071/071
  90 Day Mean        07 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  024/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  018/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  014/016-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%40%30%

All times in UTC

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