Viewing archive of Monday, 9 April 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 09/1734Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0711Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (10 Apr, 11 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three (12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 069
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  009/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  015/018-014/018-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%55%50%

All times in UTC

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