Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 May 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 638 km/s at 05/2053Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 05/1400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 05/1429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 594 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 May, 07 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 May 068
  Predicted   06 May-08 May 068/069/069
  90 Day Mean        05 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 May  012/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  019/024-014/020-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm55%55%40%

All times in UTC

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