Viewing archive of Friday, 1 June 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jun 01 2300 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 772 km/s at 01/1934Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 31/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2993 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jun 075
  Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 075/075/074
  90 Day Mean        01 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jun  022/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  019/025-011/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm60%45%40%

All times in UTC

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