Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 November 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 19/0237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1480 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Nov 074
  Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        19 Nov 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  015/018-013/018-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%40%35%

All times in UTC

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