Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 December 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 15/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 071
  Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 070/072/072
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/012-019/026-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%35%
Minor storm10%25%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%55%55%

All times in UTC

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