Viewing archive of Monday, 23 October 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/0425Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/0649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), active to
major storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (26 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 078 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 078/078/077 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/022-028/045-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 75% | 55% |
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