Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 October 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 641 km/s at 24/2012Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/1140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1017Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (25 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 078
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 078/077/077
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  016/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  028/045-023/035-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm35%25%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm75%55%40%

All times in UTC

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