Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 September 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0101Z from Region 2683 (N13E46). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep,
29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 27/2040Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 27/0640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 27/0640Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 091 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 091/091/091 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 024/032-020/026-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 60% | 40% |
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