Viewing archive of Monday, 7 March 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 07/1236Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 06/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 06/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 094
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  019/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  015/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

All times in UTC

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