Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 March 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 06/2055Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 06/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 06/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 706 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 096
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  014/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  017/022-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%25%20%

All times in UTC

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