Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 April 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 02/2131Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 397 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Apr, 06 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 082
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 082/078/078
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  015/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  008/008-013/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm05%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%55%35%

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