Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0152Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 673 km/s at 17/1045Z. Total IMF reached 35 nT at 17/1336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -28 nT at 17/1324Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 17/0045Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (18 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (19 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (20 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M40%40%20%
Class X10%10%01%
Proton60%60%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 114
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  071/119
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  021/035-015/018-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm35%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm70%45%25%

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