Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 February 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 486 km/s at 18/0106Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 17/2101Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Feb 121
  Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        18 Feb 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  018/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Feb  017/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

All times in UTC

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