Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 February 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 18/2208Z from Region 2282 (N11W64). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 462 km/s at 19/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 401 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 119
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  015/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%40%

All times in UTC

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