Viewing archive of Friday, 20 February 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 20/1522Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at 19/2232Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 774 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Feb) and unsettled levels on day three (23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 120
  Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  007/008-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%25%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%35%
Major-severe storm20%40%35%

All times in UTC

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