Viewing archive of Monday, 16 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1058Z from Region 2297 (S17W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 16/1957Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1615Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0522Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at
16/0755Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on days one, two,
and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 117 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 012/015-014/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 50% |
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