Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 December 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/1933Z from Region 1638 (N12E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare for days 1-3 (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01
Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at
29/0722Z. Total IMF reached 6.7 nT at 29/0318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.9 nT at 29/0319Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days 1-2 (30 Dec, 31 Dec). Quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an isolated active period is expected on
day 3 (01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 104 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/005-005/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
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