Viewing archive of Friday, 28 December 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A 10 degree filament, centered near N08E20, was observed erupting
in H-alpha imagery beginning at 27/1939 UTC. STEREO-A COR2 imagery
showed an associated faint CME beginning at 27/2309 UTC with the
majority of the ejecta directed north of the ecliptic. We are
currently waiting on further imagery to determine possible
geoeffectiveness. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec,
30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 314 km/s at
28/0506Z. Total IMF reached 6.2 nT at 28/1254Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.3 nT at 28/1804Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 106 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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