Viewing archive of Friday, 25 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very
low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26
Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft reached a peak of 423 km/s at 25/1918Z. Total IMF
reached 17.7 nT at 25/1944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -4.3 nT at 25/0147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 531 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (26 Jan, 27
Jan, 28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 101 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 009/015-013/020-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 10% |
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