Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1613 (S23E31) has developed a Delta magnetic configuration and produced multiple M-class flares with associated CMEs. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 13/0204Z from Region 1613. Regions 1610 (S24W23) and 1611 (N12W00) have Beta Gamma magnetic configurations. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No CMEs observed during the period are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 22.8 nT at 13/0053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19.5 nT at 12/2338Z. ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 12/2216Z. A sudden impulse was observed at 12/2316Z (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin at active levels early on day 1 (14 Nov) as CME effects subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days 1 and 2 (14, 15 Nov) due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (16 Nov), conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 146
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 150/150/160
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%10%
Major-severe storm25%25%05%

All times in UTC

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