Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. A new, unnumbered region on
the northeast limb produced numerous C-class events during the
period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 17/0802Z. The other
regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for during the next
three days (18 - 20 Oct). Region 1591 (N07E07) and the new region
on the limb are the only regions that show any potential for M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind velocity measured at the ACE spacecraft increased from around
350 km/s to around 500 km/s at 16/2300Z. The solar wind then slowly
decreased from around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 440
km/s. These signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from
a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18 - 20
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 135 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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