Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A new, unnumbered region on the northeast limb produced numerous C-class events during the period, the largest of which was a C7 flare at 17/0802Z. The other regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class event for during the next three days (18 - 20 Oct). Region 1591 (N07E07) and the new region on the limb are the only regions that show any potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar wind velocity measured at the ACE spacecraft increased from around 350 km/s to around 500 km/s at 16/2300Z. The solar wind then slowly decreased from around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 440 km/s. These signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18 - 20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 135
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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