Viewing archive of Monday, 12 November 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 12/1022Z from Region 1610 (S22W10). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 362 km/s at 12/0605Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8.1 nT at 12/1934Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active with a chance for minor storm levels early on day one (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z. Activity is expected to decrease to generally unsettled levels on day 2 (14 Nov) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (15 Nov) conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Nov 144
  Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        12 Nov 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  013/015-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%05%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm25%30%10%
Major-severe storm05%25%05%

All times in UTC

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